Timing the action: Mobilization and the chronopolitics of democratic resistance in Central America

How do cultural understandings of time affect the trajectory of pro-democratic mobilization? When actors engage in collective action against corrupt or authoritarian regimes, their perceptions of the opportune moment to escalate, the tactics to employ, and the anticipated duration of protest are deeply based in historical memory and cultural perceptions of time (chronopolitics). Through a comparative study of pro-democratic mobilizations in Guatemala in 2023 and Nicaragua in 2018 and drawing on more than 40 in-depth interviews with protesters, my firsthand experiences at both sites, and Protest Event Analysis, I show that mobilizations sparked by broad dissatisfaction with undemocratic regimes reveal a critical connection between collective action and culturally embedded ways of understanding politics and time. In Guatemala, this emerged from the “disruptive patience” of Mayan conceptions of time and community, while in Nicaragua it stemmed from “reactive agitation” rooted in the Sandinista revolutionary legacy, which shaped political imaginaries with expectations of abrupt, radical change. The comparison demonstrates that timing perceptions mediate between structural political opportunities and activists’ strategic choices, with tangible consequences for mobilization outcomes. Integrating chronopolitics into social movement analysis is key to understanding how pro-democratic mobilizations emerge and how some sustain themselves under pressure.