A regional-scale assessment of climate-resilient corridors and connectivity in the Amazon

Corridors are an important tool for facilitating habitat connectivity and biodiversity resilience under climate change. In the tropics where latitudinal range shifts are rare, “climate-resilient corridors” connect habitats along elevational gradients to promote species range shifts under climate change. We performed a regional-scale assessment of climate resilience and connectivity between lowland protected areas (≤ 500 m elevation) and potential highland refugia (2000-3500 m elevation) throughout the Amazon biogeographic region (6,748,755 km 2 ) using least cost path and circuit theory analyses. We identified high concentrations of potential climate-resilient corridors in the western Amazon, especially eastern Perú and Ecuador, but also in southwestern Colómbia, northern Brazil, northern Bolivia, north-central Guyana, and western Suriname. However, these routes are only moderately protected and are threatened by forest fragmentation and extractive activities, particularly oil and gas. On average, least cost paths are 57% protected, but also average 26% coverage by oil and gas concessions, particularly in the western Amazon. Furthermore, whereas 62% of high-connectivity areas identified from circuit theory analysis are protected, these areas are highly fragmented (median area of 2 km 2 ) and we identified just 10 contiguous, unprotected high-connectivity areas > 10,000 km 2 in the western Amazon and Guiana Shield region. Our regional-scale assessment demonstrates that fragmentation, extractive activities, and gaps in protection may represent considerable obstacles for regional climate resilience and connectivity in the Amazon. Our work can set the stage for finer-scale assessments for prioritizing specific sites for conservation and restoration, particularly in the western Amazon and Guiana Shield region.