Challenges in Navigating Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is often promoted as a way to challenge assumptions and prepare organizations for uncertainty. Yet little is known about what happens when scenarios confront leadership bias and internal power dynamics. Drawing on an autoethnographic study of a 2006 scenario planning effort at NASA’s Johnson Space Center, this article reveals how strategic persistence and organizational politics initially limited leadership’s acceptance of scenarios developed outside the senior team. Despite this resistance, elements of these scenarios influenced strategy over time through parallel initiatives, partnerships, and innovation efforts. The article highlights how leaders can use scenario planning not only to imagine alternative futures but also to navigate resistance and embed strategic change in complex organizations.