External factors and internal vulnerabilities: rethinking security challenges for the Central- Asian region in a transforming world

The article examines external and internal challenges facing the Central Asian region amid global transformations, analyzes their interconnections, and puts forward recommendations for building a resilient regional security framework. The relevance of the work is determined by Central Asia's strategic position in Eurasia, which makes it an object of geopolitical rivalry, as well as by the confluence of numerous interconnected threats, ranging from traditional ones, such as great power competition and the repercussions of the situation in Afghanistan, to non-traditional ones – terrorism, extremism, water-energy contradictions, and the consequences of climate change. The methodological foundation of the research is a systemic approach, which allows for the consideration of Central Asian security as an integral, multi-level, and open system that is in constant interaction with global processes. Within this framework, a set of methods is employed: analysis and synthesis, enabling the decomposition of the problem and the identification of systemic interconnections; geopolitical analysis is used to examine the influence of spatial factors and the competition among external actors. Particular attention is given to the comparative analysis of the policies of key states in the region and extra-regional powers. The empirical base is formed by a corpus of documents (official documents and political programs), along with the processing of publicly available statistical data. The theoretical and practical significance of the research lies in deepening the understanding of the complex nature of regional security and in developing practical recommendations for states within the region and external actors interested in building a sustainable "Community of Security and Development". The main conclusion of the work is that the challenges are systemic and interconnected, and effectively countering them necessitates a transition to a multi-level governance system. This system should encompass internal reforms, the deepening of regional integration within the frameworks of the CSTO and SCO, and inclusive international cooperation aimed at transforming Central Asia from an "arc of instability" into a "bridge of cooperation and sustainable development".