Estimating Lifecycle Management of Retired Electric Motorcycle Batteries into Total Cost of Ownership Modelling in Indonesia

Electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) are promoted as lower-emission options in emerging economies. Their long-term cost competitiveness depends mainly on battery durability and how batteries are managed at the end of their life. This research examines Li-ion and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM)-type batteries versus the previously common lead-acid batteries in these markets. The study uses a 12-year total cost of ownership (TCO) framework that includes battery degradation, estimated first-life duration, and alternative lifecycle pathways. It covers three sensitivity analysis cases: conservative, base case, and optimistic. Three scenarios are evaluated: (1) no lifecycle management, (2) refurbishment for first-life extension, and (3) integrated lifecycle management with refurbishment, second-life utilisation, and recycling. Results show that managing the battery lifecycle can reduce TCO. The amount of reduction depends on first-life duration, ownership horizon, refurbishment cost, downstream residual value, and use intensity. The greatest TCO gains are found in battery categories with short first-life duration, allowing substantial residual value recovery during ownership. Batteries with first-life durations of 12 years or more provide smaller benefits. These findings support optimising lifecycle pathways for maximum residual value. Improved TCO performance, along with supportive infrastructure, policies, and market development, is critical for broader E2W adoption.