Exploring the Mediating Role of Productivity in the Shock-Happiness Relationship in Myanmar

Abstract Though the literature has explored the impact of shocks on agriculture, less attention has been given to their effects on farmers’ happiness and the mediating role of productivity. This paper examines the effects of shocks on farmers’ happiness in Myanmar and explores how agricultural productivity mediates this relationship. The study uses nationwide phone survey datasets from Myanmar, provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute, focusing on the rice sector to assess productivity. The results show that the shock-happiness relationship is partially mediated by rice productivity, indicating that productivity serves as a minor mechanism through which adverse shocks negatively affect happiness. However, the findings also demonstrate that productivity is not the sole mediator, as shocks influence happiness through additional pathways. Notably, farmers’ happiness is more directly influenced by recent productivity than by past agricultural performance. However, past shocks continue to have significant and lingering effects on their happiness. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to mitigate the effects of shocks on well-being not only by improving rice productivity, but also by addressing other factors that influence farmers’ happiness. Future research should explore additional mediators and develop targeted strategies to enhance well-being in rural communities.