Land use change analysis for sustainable development in arid oases: Keyhole imagery and PLUS model integration

Understanding land use/cover change (LUCC) is essential for analyzing human–environment systems and promoting regional sustainable development, particularly in ecologically fragile arid oasis cities. However, the paucity of long-term observations in existing studies constrains robust analyses of nonlinear land-use transitions and their driving mechanisms under rapid urbanization. Historical satellite imagery enables the identification of long-term trends in land-use patterns, while extended time-series datasets enhance the calibration of predictive models and the reliability of scenario-based simulations. Accordingly, this study examines six decades of LUCC in the Toutunhe District, located on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, by integrating declassified Keyhole imagery and multi-source land use data from 1965 to 2020. Using a land-use transfer matrix, dynamic degree index, and the PLUS model, this study analyzes spatiotemporal patterns, drivers, and scenario simulations to 2035. Cropland initially expanded then declined, while built-up land surged along transport corridors (3.97%–33.9%). Grassland, water, and unused land decreased markedly, with unused land disappearing by 2020. Socioeconomic forces generally outweighed natural factors in driving LUCC, though relative influences varied across periods. Scenario simulations indicate continued urban encroachment under business-as-usual, whereas sustainable development promotes a better balance between ecological protection and urban expansion. By linking historical dynamics with future projections, this study provides quantifiable empirical evidence to inform land management policies in arid regions, thereby enhancing governance effectiveness and adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it proposes a transferable analytical framework applicable to land-use planning in other regions, offering valuable insights for future model development, policy evaluation, and cross-scale research. • Integrating historical military and modern remote sensing imagery overcomes early-stage data limitations in arid oasis cities. • Long-term LUCC assessment reconstructs the spatiotemporal evolution of Toutunhe District (1965–2020) across distinct transitional phases. • Driver analysis highlights the dominance of socioeconomic over natural factors, with temporal variability offering insights for land management in arid regions. • PLUS-based scenario simulations indicate that sustainable development can effectively reconcile urban expansion with ecological conservation by 2035.