Spatial Suitability of Peste des Petits Ruminants in North Africa Using Machine-Learning Ecological Niche Modeling

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants and remains a major threat to food security and rural livelihoods across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. In the Mediterranean, uneven outbreak reporting and intense spatial clustering hinder the identification of regions where environmental and anthropogenic conditions favor disease occurrence. This study applied an interpretable machine-learning ecological niche modeling framework to characterize PPR spatial suitability in North Africa. A merged outbreak dataset (n = 744) was compiled from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) EMPRES-i and the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) databases for 2005–2026. Outbreak locations were linked to environmental and anthropogenic predictors, spatially thinned, and paired with randomly sampled pseudo-absences at a 1:1 ratio. After correlation-based screening and Boruta feature selection, four classifiers were compared under five-fold spatial block cross-validation: a generalized linear model (GLM), a support vector machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). All models showed good discriminatory performance. Random Forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) yielded the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value (AUC = 0.94). Random Forest achieved the highest specificity, XGBoost achieved the highest sensitivity, and the support vector machine showed the most even sensitivity–specificity tradeoff among the machine-learning classifiers. Sheep density, mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality, and human population density were consistently the dominant drivers. Predicted PPR suitability based on reported outbreaks was concentrated along the North African coastal belt and low across most arid inland regions. These findings suggest that passive surveillance is likely to be most informative in coastal production systems where host density, environmental suitability, and reporting opportunity overlap. At the same time, areas of lower reported-outbreak suitability should not be interpreted as disease-free and may require complementary active surveillance approaches.