Leadership capital and coalition formation: office-seeking in the 2010 UK hung parliament

Abstract Why are some arithmetically possible coalitions never pursued while others form rapidly? This article argues that leadership capital operates as gatekeeper and accelerator in coalition formation, extending the Leadership Capital Index framework from office-holding to office-seeking contexts. Applying this framework to the 2010 UK coalition negotiations, and drawing comparisons with the 1977–78 Lib-Lab Pact and 2017 Conservative-DUP agreement, the analysis demonstrates how Gordon Brown’s capital deficits prevented serious pursuit of a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition despite arithmetic feasibility, while David Cameron’s strong capital position enabled rapid Conservative-Liberal Democrat agreement within five days. The findings specify scope conditions for when leadership matters: arithmetic determines likely outcomes, but capital shapes the process through which structural possibilities become political realities.