Climate Change Impacts on Native and Exotic Mangrove Distributions and Niche Overlap Analysis

Mangroves are important coastal wetland ecosystems with high ecological service values and strong carbon sequestration capacity, serving as a crucial barrier for coastal ecological security. However, current afforestation efforts often ignore environmental suitability differences among mangrove species, while the applicability value and ecological risks of exotic species (Laguncularia racemosa and Sonneratia apetala) for restoration remain poorly understood. Five native and two exotic mangrove species along China’s coasts were selected in this study. Using the MaxEnt model, we identified key environmental factors governing their distribution, predicted their current and future suitable habitats (under the SSP245 scenario in the 2070s), and quantified niche overlap between native and exotic mangroves. The results showed that temperature-related factors (air and sea temperature) are the core climatic drivers shaping the typical mangrove distribution, followed by sea surface salinity, with precipitation contributing little. Currently, niche overlap between native and the two exotic species is low (D.overlap: 0.129–0.340), indicating certain niche differentiation. Under the SSP245 scenario in the 2070s, except for Rhizophora stylosa, other studied species appear to experience expanded suitable habitat areas and a northward latitudinal distribution shift. Compared with Sonneratia apetala, Laguncularia racemosa exhibits a more pronounced expansion of suitable habitats in the future, with its overall suitable area second only to the native Kandelia obovata, indicating its stronger adaptive potential to climate change. Clarifying niche differentiation and constructing species-specific management frameworks may facilitate biological invasion control, mangrove restoration, and species diversity improvement.