Climate Change, Resource Scarcity, and Communal Violence in the Sahel: Hybrid Peacebuilding in Mali

There has been increasing recognition that climate change will be a key driver of the nature of conflict in fragile regions, particularly those where livelihoods are dependent upon the environment. The Sahel region provides an example of this connection between environmental vulnerability, socioeconomic precariousness, and political instability; with Mali being one of the most vulnerable countries within the region. As rising temperatures, irregular rainfalls, droughts and land degradation increase competition for limited natural resources (water, arable land) agro-pastoral communities are placed under further pressure. Environmental pressures (climate-related) can also serve as risk multiplier factors acting to increase the propensity for community-based violence through their interaction with poor governance; historical marginalization; and fragmentation of the security sector. Farmer/herder clashes and inter-ethnic violence have become long-standing issues in Mali, primarily occurring in central and northern regions.This research explores the connections between climate change, resource scarcity, and community-based violence in Mali. It also evaluates hybrid peacebuilding as a strategy for mitigating these conflicts. Hybrid peacebuilding combines formal state institutions, customary governance, and international interventionism to manage conflict and promote resilience. Employing a qualitative, mechanism-focused framework derived from climate science, conflict theory, and empirical research, the study demonstrates that community-based violence results from the combination of environmental stress (caused by climate change) and institutional failure (i.e., government), politicized identities, and militarized insecurity. While hybrid peacebuilding appears to provide a practical solution for reducing community-based violence through its emphasis on local legitimacy, inclusive governance, and equitable resource distribution; it is also subject to limitations posed by elite capture and exclusion. Therefore, lasting peace in Mali and the Sahel region requires a comprehensive strategy combining climate adaptation, reform of governance, and development of pluralistic peace structures addressing both environmental and political drivers of conflict.