Dual Aspect of the Pandemic on the African Continent: Viral Distribution and Shifting Demographic Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, emerged in late 2019 and rapidly developed into a global health crisis. In this study, we analysed 173,194 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the GISAID database to explore the intra-continental dynamics and distribution of variants across Africa between 2020 and 2024. We have identified 1377 distinct lineages, which were classified by clade to assess associations with infection and mortality rate. So, we conducted a Shannon entropy analysis to confirm the diversity and we applied a Correspondence Analysis (CA). Our findings revealed that one of the deadliest in Africa during the Delta wave, lineage AY.45 predominated in the South Africa cluster, whereas AY.34.1 drove transmission in the Atlantic West Africa cluster, underscoring regional heterogeneity. Furthermore, early in the pandemic, men exhibited a 39% higher risk of infection compared to women (aOR: 1.39, 95% CI [1.34–1.45]), particularly in association with clade G. By contrast, later stages were dominated by clade GRA, which disproportionately affected the elderly (≥70 years; aOR: 1.39, 95% CI [1.33–1.45]) and children (0–9 years; aOR: 1.26, 95% CI [1.20–1.33]). Our analysis highlighted that the pandemic on the African continent unfolded as a mosaic of epidemics shaped by diverse variants and regional epidemiological contexts. These findings emphasize the importance of genomic surveillance to capture local epidemic signatures and inform region-specific public health strategies.