Does It Really Reduce Emissions? Full-Chain Life Cycle Emission and Economic Benefits Analysis of New Energy Vehicles in China

Scientific assessment of energy conservation, emissions reduction, public health externalities, and economic costs is crucial for the sustainable development of new energy vehicles (NEVs). Despite minimal emissions during the operational phase of NEVs, the production process of energy, such as electricity and hydrogen, contributes to pollution across the full supply chain, shifting environmental and health burdens to upstream sectors and raising concerns about the overall societal benefits. To address this, we apply a full-chain life cycle assessment (FC-LCA) framework that integrates emissions from vehicle production, energy supply, and end-of-life stages, while simultaneously quantifying health-related mortality attributable to key pollutants. By incorporating upstream energy production structure and downstream industry emissions, this approach captures the complete energy supply chain and enables a systematic comparison between NEVs and conventional vehicles. We further employed and compared ARIMA, LSTM, and Bi-LSTM models to forecast future vehicle demand and defined different forecasting scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle sector. Results provide policy-relevant insights for decision-makers to make informed policy choices concerning the widespread implementation of NEVs in a sustainable manner.