Multi-Level Structural Dynamics and Carbon Responsibility Redistribution in China’s Power Sector: Implications for Sustainable Energy Transition

Understanding how carbon emission responsibilities evolve within interconnected electricity systems is essential for effective environmental governance and sustainable energy transitions. This study develops a carbon-extended multi-dynamic interregional input-output shift-share framework to examine how structural dynamics reshape carbon emission responsibilities in China’s power sector. Using provincial multi-regional input-output data for 31 provinces in 2012, 2015, and 2017, the framework integrates production-based and consumption-based accounting into a unified multi-level analytical structure. The results reveal four key findings. First, production-based emissions are primarily concentrated in central and western power-generation provinces, whereas consumption-based emissions cluster in eastern and central demand centers, reflecting a persistent spatial mismatch between electricity production and consumption. Second, under production-based accounting, the power sector shifts from having a lower emission growth rate than the provincial average to exceeding it, while consumption-based emissions consistently grow more slowly than the provincial average. Third, the national level increasingly dominates emission growth transmission in both accounting perspectives, with stronger influence on the production side and greater provincial heterogeneity on the consumption side. Fourth, structural upgrading becomes increasingly concentrated at the provincial level under both perspectives. These findings highlight the importance of multi-level structural dynamics in shaping carbon responsibility allocation and provide policy-relevant insights for coordinated decarbonization, sustainable electricity transition, and cross-regional carbon governance. This study contributes to the understanding of sustainable development pathways in carbon-intensive energy systems and offers practical implications for achieving low-carbon and sustainable power sector transformation.