A Review and Perspectives on Wind Speed Forecasting for High-Speed Railways in China

Extreme meteorological phenomena—characterized by gale-force winds, torrential rainfall, and ice-snow accumulation—pose significant threats to the operational safety of high-speed railways, with wind-induced hazards being especially critical. Such events can trigger catastrophic incidents, including train derailments and service disruptions, as evidenced by numerous documented cases worldwide. To bolster the wind resilience of high-speed railway systems, high-precision wind speed prediction has become a cornerstone for ensuring operational safety. This research presents a systematic review of international advancements in railway wind early warning systems, critically evaluating the technical attributes and performance constraints of four primary paradigms: physical numerical models, statistical methods, machine learning algorithms, and hybrid frameworks. Moving beyond a simple taxonomy, this paper delineates the strengths, limitations, and domain-specific applicability of each approach within the high-speed railways context. Furthermore, it assesses the transformative potential of emerging large-scale Artificial Intelligence (AI) meteorological models for wind speed forecasting. A quantitative comparison is provided to facilitate rigorous methodological assessment. The findings reveal four critical technical bottlenecks: (1) low computational efficiency of numerical models; (2) insufficient spatiotemporal resolution of monitoring data; (3) poor generalization of predictive models; and (4) the “black-box” nature and weak interpretability of AI models. To address these, this paper posits that future research should prioritize key technologies including multi-source heterogeneous data fusion, algorithmic optimization, design of intelligent algorithms, probabilistic risk forecasting, and the synergistic integration of AI with numerical weather prediction (NWP). Such advancements will catalyze the development of more robust HSR wind warning systems, ensuring sustained safety and operational efficiency under volatile meteorological conditions.