Evidence for Threshold-like Dynamics in Aedes Mosquito Populations Under Sustained Mass Trapping on Tropical Islands

Mass trapping of adult mosquitoes is increasingly promoted as an environmentally friendly alternative to insecticide-based vector control, yet quantitative evidence for its long-term population-level effects remains limited. We analyzed adult Aedes mosquito Biogents trap data from four tropical islands (three in the Maldives, one in the Philippines) where mass trapping was implemented at different trap densities. Using equilibrium-constrained population models, we describe how adult Aedes populations differ across trap densities, with outcomes ranging from partial suppression to near-zero levels at higher trap densities. At low to intermediate densities (4–6 traps·ha−1), populations stabilized at non-zero equilibrium levels, whereas operational elimination was consistently observed at densities ≥ 10 traps ha−1. A descriptive curve is shown to illustrate the decline in equilibrium abundance with increasing trap density, while a conceptual sigmoid model is used to illustrate how a transition in the recruitment–removal balance may occur under theoretical conditions. Limited larval source management was implemented on two islands, but elimination was also observed in the absence of larval interventions, indicating that sustained adult removal appears to have been the dominant driver of suppression. These findings indicate that mass trapping, when deployed at sufficiently high densities, is associated with rapid declines to near-zero population levels and may serve as an effective component of integrated vector management, particularly in geographically bounded settings or as a rapid-response intervention during outbreaks of arboviral diseases.