From Crisis to Structural Resilience: Econometric Evidence on India’s Inbound Tourism Recovery, Demand Scarring, and Spending Dynamics (2001–2023)

The study analyses long-term trends of foreign tourists arriving in India from 2001 to 2023. The focus has been on the impact of COVID-19, the changes in demand and the recovery situation. The study uses a quantitative long-term method in which national-level secondary data is taken. The data has been obtained from reliable sources such as the Bureau of Immigration, the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) and the Archaeological Survey of India. The study uses various geometric techniques such as log-linear growth models, interaction analysis, elastic analysis, panel regression, and SARIMA models to understand short-term and long-term structural changes. The results show that the number of foreign tourists was increasing at an average rate of 9.23% per year prior to COVID-19, but it declined sharply by about 11.58 million in 2020. Even after the pandemic, there is a shortage of about 2.34 million tourists every year, reflecting a steady decline in demand. In addition, the relationship between the number of tourists and foreign exchange earnings has weakened, where the elasticity has come down from 0.892 to 0.661, which shows a reduction in per tourist expenditure. The study also shows that in areas where the share of migratory tourists is high, the improvement has been accelerated, while the improvement in the more distant areas has been slow. According to the forecast, the number of tourists can reach around 10.23 million in 2024 and 10.72 million in 2025.Overall, the study indicates that India's tourism sector is slowly heading towards improvement, but continues to face challenges such as a reduction in demand, low per tourist spending and regional inequality. So, it is essential that not only do we increase the number of tourists, but also increase the value of tourism and focus on balanced and sustainable development.