PRICE INSTABILITY AND INPUT COSTS AS DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM POTATO FARMERS IN SHISHTAVEC, ALBANIA

This study empirically examines market-related determinants of economic uncertainty among potato farmers in the Shishtavec Administrative Unit, Kukës, Albania. While previous research has demonstrated that climatic risk is partially managed through local farming experience, this paper focuses on the impact of price instability and input costs on farmers’ economic insecurity. Based on primary data collected from 30 potato farmers through structured questionnaires, the empirical analysis employs descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The results reveal that the “price scissors” phenomenon-characterised by rising input costs and unstable output prices—constitutes the primary source of economic vulnerability. Unlike international markets where advanced artificial intelligence models are employed for price forecasting, Shishtavec farmers operate under conditions of asymmetric information and weak bargaining power, making the correlation between high input costs and economic uncertainty statistically significant (p < .001). The findings underscore the importance of policy interventions aimed at input subsidisation and the development of contractual arrangements to stabilise farm incomes in mountainous agricultural systems.