Asymmetric Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Financial Stress on the Resilience of China’s Strategic Emerging Industries: Evidence from a TVP-VAR-SV Framework

In the context of intensified trade frictions and frequent financial market fluctuations, assessing the risk resilience of strategic emerging industries holds significant strategic value. Based on quarterly data from 2010 to 2025, this study empirically examines the time-varying and asymmetric shock effects of trade policy uncertainty and financial stress on the profitability of China’s strategic emerging industries using the TVP-VAR-SV model. The study finds that China’s strategic emerging industries exhibit significant asymmetric resilience differences when facing different external shocks, specifically demonstrating stronger trade resilience and weaker financial resilience. The shocks brought by trade uncertainty typically show short-term pain followed by rapid recovery, with the negative impact being largely eliminated within two quarters and subsequently turning into positive growth, reflecting outstanding recovery capability. In contrast, the impact of financial stress on corporate profitability has a profound long-tail effect, with negative disruptions often persisting for more than two years before gradually dissipating. This contrast indicates that trade policy uncertainty and financial stress affect industrial resilience through asymmetric response patterns in terms of impact intensity and persistence. Over time, as autonomy and controllability have improved, the industry’s defensive ability to cope with trade frictions has significantly strengthened, yet credit tightening and liquidity pressure in the financial sector remain the core threats to its profitability recovery. This study not only reveals the asymmetric resilience paths of strategic emerging industries under different external shocks but also provides empirical evidence and policy recommendations for the future improvement of the technology–finance system and the construction of a more resilient domestic industrial chain.