A Review of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources, Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies in South Africa

Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources and agricultural sustainability, particularly in semi-arid and socio-economically vulnerable regions such as South Africa. This review synthesizes empirical, modelling, and policy-based evidence on the impacts of climate change on water availability, crop production, and adaptation strategies in the country, drawing on approximately 162 peer-reviewed studies and institutional reports published between 2010 and 2025. The findings indicate that rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and an increasing frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and floods, are intensifying water stress and disrupting agricultural systems. Hydrological models consistently project declines in runoff, soil moisture, and streamflow, while crop simulation models predict reductions in the yields of major staple crops, including maize, wheat, and sorghum, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Although localized improvements in water availability and crop productivity may occur, these tend to be limited and highly context-specific. In response, South Africa has implemented a range of adaptation strategies, including climate-smart agriculture, water-efficient irrigation, ecosystem-based approaches, and policy-driven interventions. However, their effectiveness remains constrained by institutional fragmentation, limited financial capacity, and persistent socio-economic inequalities, particularly among smallholder farmers. The review underscores the need for integrated, inclusive, and context-specific adaptation strategies that strengthen governance, enhance the science–policy interface, and improve access to climate finance. The insights provided offer valuable guidance for advancing climate resilience in South Africa and other vulnerable regions across the Global South.