Features of Developing a Regional Education Development Program Based on Forecast Results

The article presents approaches to designing a regional education system development program using forecast results (using Primorsky Krai as an example). At the diagnostic stage, the project group led by the author of the article monitored a wide range of statistical data in the field of socio-economic development of the region, including the regional education system. Based on the data obtained using methods of content analysis, expert assessments, and extrapolation, probable directions of management actions were formulated that can lead to the achievement of socio-economic effects associated with improving the demographic situation in the region, as well as possible risks of developing the education system. The research problem, the solution of which is described in these materials, was associated with the use of information obtained at the diagnostic stage for setting goals and objectives, determining program values, developing subprograms and roadmaps that take into account the forecast results. The article presents a program implementation management system and shows the results of the state and public examination of the developed document. The relevance of the problem solution is due to the problems of insufficiently complete analysis of the situation in the social sphere and education system of individual regions of our country; making forecasts that have a low probability level; poor use of forecast results, formulated forecasts and recommendations in the development of regional development programs.