Trade Policy Uncertainty and Beyond: Asymmetric Macroeconomic Determinants of Türkiye’s Food Exports to the U.S.

Food exports hold growing importance for Türkiye and the United States is one of the leading markets in this sector. Several economic factors affect Türkiye’s food export revenues to the U.S. such as income levels, global food prices, trade policy-related uncertainties and currency strength. Using quarterly data for the 2002: Q1-2024: Q4 period, this study applies a nonlinear ARDL model that decomposes each factor into its positive and negative shocks to uncover asymmetric effects. The findings show that, in the short run, positive shocks to global food prices increase Türkiye’s food-export revenues to the U.S. and negative shocks to uncertainty also boost them. In the long run, food prices and income become statistically insignificant and it implies structural rigidities. However, uncertainty exhibits a significant asymmetric effect. While higher uncertainty yields trade diversion gains but stability generates substantially larger increases in export revenues. Additionally, real appreciation of the Turkish lira significantly reduces revenues, whereas depreciation does not boost them. These results underscore the importance of flexible export strategies that account for structural constraints and policy changes.