The Evolution of Reliability Analysis for Power Protection and Control Systems

With the advancement of new-type power systems and smart grids, the structure of power protection and control systems has become increasingly complex, and their reliability exhibits dynamic evolution, multi-factor coupling, and full life cycle characteristics. Against this background, this paper presents a review of the evolution of reliability analysis methods for power protection and control systems. Early research has focused on parametric modeling based on statistical data and structural logic combination analysis, establishing a static reliability analysis framework grounded in the relationship between component failure probability and system structure. Subsequently, to characterize temporal process features such as state transitions, fault dependencies, and maintenance recovery, dynamic modeling methods such as state-space models and dynamic fault trees were developed and applied. In recent years, with the continuous accumulation of full life cycle operational data, multi-source information fusion and data-driven technologies have gradually been introduced into reliability research, promoting the expansion of the analysis framework from stage-based evaluation to full-process evolutionary modeling. On this basis, the modeling concepts, applicable scenarios, and inherent limitations of different methods are summarized and compared. Furthermore, the development trend of an integrated reliability analysis system that deeply combines mechanism models with data-driven methods is discussed, aiming to provide a theoretical foundation for the improvement of reliability analysis systems.