Trends in type 2 diabetes incidence in a disadvantaged neighbourhood before and during implementation of complex community-based health interventions

OBJECTIVE: This study aims at exploring longitudinal trends in the onset of type 2 diabetes in the disadvantaged urban neighbourhood of Tingbjerg before and during implementation of interventions within the Danish health promotion initiative Tingbjerg Changing Diabetes. The findings are compared with trends in the national population. DESIGN: Using Poisson regression, trends in age-specific incidence rates were estimated in both populations during the full timespan with adjustments for gender and educational attainment. We used anonymised national registers to obtain sociodemographic and health information about all residents in Tingbjerg. Likewise, information from the remaining national population was analysed for comparison. SETTING: Tingbjerg is a disadvantaged neighbourhood with approximately 7000 residents located in the outskirts of Copenhagen. PARTICIPANTS: The full national adult population in Denmark, from 2003 to the end of 2022, was included in the study. INTERVENTIONS: Tingbjerg Changing Diabetes is a long-term complex community-based health promotion initiative that started in 2015 and aims at enhancing well-being, promoting healthy living and preventing type 2 diabetes and other chronic diseases among residents of the local community. OUTCOMES: The outcome measure was onset of type 2 diabetes assessed by clinical register data. RESULTS: Estimated trends show relatively higher age-adjusted incidence rates of type 2 diabetes in Tingbjerg compared with the national population with an almost two-fold higher rate in Tingbjerg in 2015. From 2015, a decline in the incidence rate was observed in Tingbjerg whereas an increase was observed in the national population, resulting in almost similar rates in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Exploration of type 2 diabetes incidence rates from 2003 to 2022 shows relative improvements in Tingbjerg after 2015. It is unknown to what extent the interventions have impacted the observed trends.