Mixed-Methods Projections of Post-Pandemic Agricultural and Urban Land Use in Eastern Thailand

Eastern Thailand serves as a critical case study for the escalating tension between agricultural preservation and urban expansion, a dynamic recently intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study addresses a pivotal research question: To what extent do emerging socio-economic realities, such as policy shifts, labor fluctuations, and climatic extremes, alter the spatiotemporal continuity of urban expansion? Employing a mixed-methods approach, we integrated multi-stakeholder insights with quantitative spatial modeling to simulate context-specific land use futures through 2030. Qualitative findings indicate that while COVID-19 accelerated agricultural modernization, evidenced by increased mechanization and e-commerce integration, these shifts have limited long-term impact on land use patterns. Instead, regional policy, climate change, and technological innovation emerged as the primary drivers of landscape transformation. Quantitative simulations reveal that urban growth will concentrate in the western provinces bordering Bangkok and the southern coastal corridors of Chon Buri and Rayong. Crucially, across all scenarios, approximately 60% of new urban land is projected to be converted from existing croplands, followed by significant losses in natural forest cover. These results demonstrate that current growth-oriented policies may undermine regional food security and ecosystem services. This study provides a framework for balancing agricultural modernization with ecological preservation, offering essential evidence for developing the integrated, sustainability-focused land use frameworks required to meet 2030 development goals.