The impact of political instability on economic growth in six fragile states in the MENA region including Syria Lebanon Yemen Iraq Sudan and Libya

Abstract This study examines the relationship between political instability and economic growth in six fragile MENA countries: Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Libya, and Sudan. Using a structured comparative case study design that operationalizes process tracing through systematic within-case evidence analysis, including time-aligned event sequences linking conflict onset to FDI collapse and GDP contraction, the study identifies three key transmission mechanisms: investment climate disruption, human capital erosion, and institutional degradation. Rather than treating these mechanisms as discrete, the paper demonstrates their synergistic interaction through documented feedback loops that create self-reinforcing "fragility traps." The study argues that instability creates uncertainty that discourages investment, undermines institutional functioning, and impairs policy delivery. Empirical analysis draws exclusively on verifiable, sourced data: GDP contractions are documented with specific dataset citations (World Bank WDI, IMF WEO), and all estimates are clearly distinguished from official statistics. The comparative framework reveals that the severity of economic decline correlates with the intensity and duration of political instability, with pre-crisis institutional quality moderating the pace rather than the ultimate trajectory of collapse. The paper's core theoretical contribution is demonstrating that institutional collapse generally precedes and predicts investment decline, that conflict duration matters more than intensity for cumulative economic damage, and that threshold effects exist beyond which recovery requires fundamental political settlement rather than economic intervention alone. This paper contributes to political economy and development studies literature by providing a systematic cross-country analysis of cumulative long-term effects of sustained political instability through empirically documented causal mechanisms.