The impact of pandemics and the economic uncertainty on sub-Saharan Africa’s labour market

Abstract The study provides a comparative analysis of the impact of pandemics and the level of economic uncertainty in the labour markets of low- and middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Although the impact of pandemics has received considerable attention to date, the analysis of pandemic asymmetric effects in the labour market and the role of economic uncertainty as a mediator of these effects has not yet been fully explored. Asymmetric panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Fixed/Random Effect models, as well as secondary data for the fourteen SSA countries, are employed in the analysis, which covers the sample period from 1996 to 2022. The findings demonstrate that a high frequency of pandemics significantly affects the labour market of low-income SSA countries over both the short and long run. However, the effects of pandemics are only short-term significant for middle-income SSA countries. Furthermore, high pandemic frequency itself triggers unemployment more in low-income countries, while the effect in middle-income countries depends on the economic uncertainty levels. The findings imply that low-income countries suffer more from pandemics than middle-income countries, given the severity of the effects. This could be mitigated through stronger social protection and labour market policies. Also, policymakers in low-income countries should give top priority to establishing their own economic strategies and be vigilant in assessing their current economic conditions.