Climatic and non-climatic impacts on fish production in Bangladesh by using autoregressive distributed lag model

Abstract Climate change puts Bangladeshi fish farming households at high risk for production. It poses serious impact on nutritional availability, livelihood, poverty, and income. The study aimed to assess the short and long run impacts on fish production in Bangladesh by utilizing climatic and non-climatic factors. Annual time series data spanning 45 years, from 1978 to 2022, were used in this study. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique and the Johansen cointegration test were used for validating short and long run relationships. The results of the bound test confirm that climate and non-climate variables and fish production have a long run association. The ARDL results indicate that pesticide use exerts a significant positive effect on fish production in both the short and long run, suggesting that its’ controlled application may enhance disease management and thereby improve overall productivity. The long run impacts of rainfall on fish production were also favorable, while the short and long run effects of temperature on fish production were negative. Our findings are confirmed to be robust by CUSUM and CUSUM squared tests, which showed that the model residuals show no signs of structural instability. Findings of the study highlight the importance of climate resilient fish production policies and practices to mitigate the effects. In order to guarantee a resilient aquaculture sub-sector and sustainable fish production, a comprehensive plan combining sustainable practices, technical advancements, and strong governmental frameworks is required.