Sustainability Assessment of Industrialised and Conventional Renovation Pathways for Public Housing: Operational and Embodied Carbon Trade-Offs in a Stock-Level Study in the Comunitat Valenciana (Spain)

Sustainable renovation of existing residential building stocks is essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy performance, and support long-term climate-neutral housing strategies. However, decisions based only on operational indicators may overlook important product-stage embodied impacts, especially in highly integrated renovation solutions. This study evaluates how alternative renovation pathways for a public residential building portfolio in the Comunitat Valenciana (Spain) perform from a stock-level sustainability perspective, comparing five INFINITE industrialised retrofit kits (Kit 1–Kit 5) with five paired conventional renovation scenarios (S1–S5). A bottom-up building stock modelling workflow is applied, combining building-energy simulation to quantify operational performance and emissions (B6) with a screening life-cycle assessment of product-stage embodied carbon reported as GWP (A1–A3). To relate upfront and in-use impacts, the study computes carbon payback, cumulative emissions avoided, and a horizon-based partial life-cycle climate indicator, PLC(H), assessed for 2030, 2035, and 2050. The results show a clear sustainability trade-off: renovation packages that sharply reduce operational emissions often require higher upfront embodied carbon, shifting net climate benefits towards longer time horizons. Low-embodied options provide earlier benefits, with Kit 1 reducing PLC(H) by 15.5% by 2030, whereas deeper decarbonisation packages achieve stronger long-term outcomes, with S5 reducing PLC(H) by 70.7% by 2050. A bounded electricity-decarbonisation sensitivity further shows that these long-horizon rankings are affected by lower grid-emission factors, particularly for highly electrified pathways, although the strongest 2050 pathways remain robust across the tested cases. Overall, the findings show that sustainable stock-level renovation planning should jointly consider operational and embodied carbon, carbon payback, and milestone-based cumulative impacts in order to support balanced portfolio sequencing between broadly deployable fast-payback measures and selective deep retrofits.