SHAP-Value-Weighted Case-Based Reasoning Model with Improved Mixup Data Augmentation for Software Effort Estimation

Software effort estimation (SEE) serves as a cornerstone of effective software project management, and case-based reasoning (CBR) stands out as one of the most extensively adopted approaches within this domain. Nevertheless, CBR-based SEE models are still plagued by two critical challenges: conventional case retrieval mechanisms lack the ability to differentiate the relative importance of various features, and data scarcity remains a persistent bottleneck. Both issues significantly compromise the estimation accuracy and interpretability of the models. To address these limitations, we propose a SHAP–Mixup synergistic framework that enhances both feature-aware similarity learning and data distribution modeling. Specifically, we introduce (1) a stability-aware SHAP-weighted similarity metric that integrates both the magnitude and variance of feature contributions to improve retrieval robustness, and (2) a density-aware Mixup augmentation strategy that generates synthetic samples guided by local data manifold structure rather than random interpolation. Experimental results on seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method reduces MAE and MSE by up to 20.2% on average compared to baseline CBR models, while consistently improving Pred(0.25). Furthermore, by enhancing model interpretability, the proposed method equips project managers with actionable insights into the key drivers of software effort, thereby facilitating more informed and efficient resource allocation. Building on these findings, this study provides a novel and effective pathway for developing SEE models that are more accurate, robust, and transparent.