DYNAMIC RISK MAP AS A TOOL FOR MANAGING STRATEGIC RISKS OF THE GRAIN PROCESSING COMPLEX IN ENSURING REGIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY

The article presents the results of research on the development of a dynamic tool for managing strategic risks of the grain processing complex with the aim of ensuring regional economic security. The relevance of the study is driven by the need to transition from static risk assessment methods to instruments that account for the evolution of the risk environment over time under the influence of sanctions pressure, technological change, and natural factors. The article substantiates the introduction of the concept of a "dynamic risk map" and proposes a methodology for its construction. The proposed approach was tested using the grain processing complex of the Saratov Oblast as a case study. The calculation results made it possible to identify the time periods and probabilistic risk characteristics under which the implementation of investment projects in the grain processing sector demonstrates the greatest effectiveness in terms of preventing a decline in the level of economic security. The proposed toolkit can be integrated into regional development programmes and adapted for other sectoral complexes.