Shifting Epicenters: The Dynamic Regional Dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in Poland

The evolution and spatial dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants have been characterized by rapid lineage replacement and complex transmission dynamics influenced by regional connectivity. This study presents a comprehensive discrete phylogeographic analysis of 90,136 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in Poland from 2022 to 2024 to reconstruct the dispersal dynamics of major Omicron lineages, including BA.1, BA.2, BA.5, CH.1, XBB.1, and JN.1. Utilizing Bayesian statistical frameworks, we identified significant viral transitions between the 16 Polish voivodeships and established variant-specific dominance windows ranging from 2 to 4 months. Our findings reveal a highly dynamic epidemic landscape with shifting regional epicenters. The initial BA.1 wave was primarily driven by the Mazovian voivodeship, accounting for 36.1% of outward migration events. This pattern shifted dramatically with the rise in BA.2, which was centered in the industrial Silesian region in the south-west, a densely populated area with strong economic ties to neighboring countries, potentially reflecting a different introduction or transmission dynamic. Furthermore, the epidemic landscape continued to reconfigure during the BA.5 wave, marked by the emergence of new transmission hubs in eastern border regions such as Lublin. Subsequent lineages exhibited distinct geographic signatures: BA.5 spread broadly along the Baltic-central corridor, CH.1 was centered in the north-east, XBB.1 re-emerged in the west-central region of Greater Poland, and JN.1 was driven overwhelmingly by Lesser Poland. These transitions highlight that regional transmission hubs are transient and influenced by local factors such as population density, cross-border mobility, and socio-economic connectivity. This study underscores the critical value of dense genomic surveillance in identifying evolving dispersal routes to inform adaptive, region-specific public health interventions.