Trends, Drivers and Forms of Human–Wildlife Conflict in Nairobi National Park (1990–2025)

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) around Nairobi National Park has persisted as a critical conservation and development challenge over the past three decades, driven primarily by increasing human encroachment into wildlife habitats and heightened climate variability. Despite the implementation of mitigation measures such as electric fencing, compensation schemes, and community conservation initiatives, the frequency and intensity of conflicts continue to escalate, indicating limited effectiveness of existing interventions. This study therefore examined the trends, drivers, forms, and management responses to HWC from the 1990s to the 2020s, with the aim of understanding how climatic and anthropogenic factors jointly influence conflict dynamics in the study area. The study adopted a mixed-methods approach, integrating secondary data sources, documented empirical literature, and case study analyses. Quantitative data were analyzed using inferential statistical techniques, including correlation analysis, multiple regression, and chi-square tests, to determine relationships between key variables. Findings reveal a consistent upward trend in HWC incidents, increasing from approximately 120 reported cases annually in the 1990s to over 450 cases by 2025. A majority of respondents (68%) perceived a significant rise in conflict occurrences over time. Livestock predation by large carnivores, particularly lions (44%), emerged as the most prevalent form of conflict, followed by crop destruction (27%) and disease transmission from wildlife to livestock (14%). Correlation analysis indicated a strong positive relationship between climate variability especially drought frequency and HWC incidence (r = 0.64, p < 0.01), suggesting that climatic stress intensifies wildlife–human interactions. Multiple regression analysis further demonstrated that climate variability and land-use change jointly explained 58% of the variation in HWC occurrence (R² = 0.58, F (4,379) = 32.6, p < 0.001). Among the predictors, drought frequency (β = 0.46), land subdivision (β = 0.31), and urban expansion (β = 0.28) were identified as significant determinants of conflict intensity. Additionally, chi-square analysis revealed a significant association between awareness of mitigation strategies and their adoption (χ² = 14.82, p = 0.002), although only 42% of respondents considered existing compensation mechanisms effective in addressing losses. The study concludes that HWC around Nairobi National Park is largely shaped by the interaction between climate variability and rapid land-use transformation, which together intensify competition between wildlife and human populations. It recommends the protection and restoration of wildlife corridors, integration of climate-sensitive land-use planning, and enhanced community participation in conservation governance. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for improved, transparent, and timely compensation systems, alongside strengthened long-term mitigation frameworks to ensure coexistence between wildlife conservation and human livelihoods.