Long-term reconstruction of Japan’s tuna market and sashimi tuna demand outlook to 2050

Abstract Japan has long been one of the world’s largest markets for sashimi-grade tuna, yet long-term trends in sashimi tuna consumption have not been systematically quantified because official statistics do not distinguish sashimi use from other tuna products. This study reconstructs Japan’s tuna consumption by use category—including canned tuna, katsuobushi, and sashimi tuna—from 1993 to 2022 using a residual-based estimation method applied to official production, trade, and processing statistics, with all quantities converted to live weight equivalent (LWE). The reconstruction provides the first consistent 30-year time series describing the structure of Japan’s tuna market. The results indicate that sashimi tuna consumption peaked at approximately 726,000 t in 2000 and declined to 359,000 t in 2022, with estimated per capita domestic consumption of 2.86 kg in 2022. A reduced-form gamma model was used to project future domestic demand, while inbound demand from foreign visitors was estimated under scenario-based assumptions. The projections suggest that total sashimi tuna demand in Japan (domestic plus inbound) may decline to about 112,000 t by 2050, less than one third of the 2022 level. These projections should be interpreted as indicative reference values under specific assumptions rather than precise forecasts.