Fully Softened Strength as an Experimental Substitute for Five Wet–Dry Cycles in Expansive Clay Slope Stability: Equivalence of System Response Under Shallow Failure Conditions

Expansive clay slopes are vulnerable to progressive strength loss induced by repeated wetting and drying, a mechanism that drives shallow failure in active moisture zones. Reproducing this degradation experimentally is time-consuming and resource-intensive. This study evaluates whether Fully Softened Strength (FSS) can serve as a practical substitute for five wet–dry cycles in expansive clay slope stability assessment. Direct shear tests were conducted on wet–dry-cycled and reconstituted FSS specimens across fourteen experimental water contents. Strength parameters were incorporated into homogeneous and heterogeneous limit equilibrium slope models, considering degraded layer thicknesses of 1–5 m and suspended water table conditions. Equivalence was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), prediction bias, and physical representativeness. Five wet–dry cycles produced a dominant cohesion reduction of 70.4% with minor changes in friction angle, reaching a quasi-stationary degraded state. FSS reproduced an equivalent system response through mechanical compensation between cohesion and friction—not through equality of strength parameters—under shallow failure conditions. The best statistical fit was obtained at w = 43.5% (RMSE = 0.314); however, w = 42.0%, coinciding with the liquid limit, provided a physically more robust interpretation with near-zero bias. Equivalence was found to be valid only for normal stresses ≤ 50 kPa, representative of shallow failure depths of 1–4 m.