Optimising Vegetation Buffers for Soil and Water Conservation in Dryland Cropping Systems: A Modelling Framework Integrating Causal and Process-Based Approaches

Soil erosion and nutrient loss degrade the soil resource base and water quality in dryland agricultural landscapes, yet optimal design of vegetation buffers for soil conservation under intensifying rainfall remains poorly quantified, particularly for nutrient retention. This study is novel in integrating event-scale rainfall-simulation experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modelling, Causal Forest analysis, and WEPP simulations to quantify how the sequential addition of biocrusts and grasses to shrub buffers shifts density thresholds for runoff, soil loss, and nutrient export across varying rainfall intensities. Experiments were conducted across a continuous shrub-density gradient (0–11,429 plants ha−1) representing three configurations: shrub monoculture, shrub-biocrust, and shrub-biocrust-grass on agricultural hillslopes of the Chinese Loess Plateau. Runoff, soil loss, and exports of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were measured. Results demonstrate three main findings. First, multilayer shrub–biocrust–grass buffers exhibited lower soil loss than monocultures. Posterior estimates indicate reductions from approximately 3.8 t ha−1 at moderate monoculture density to below 1.0 t ha−1 at lower planting densities, with 94% of the highest-density intervals reflecting uncertainty in these estimates. Second, Causal Forest analysis reveals a functional separation of controls: rainfall intensity dominates soil loss (88% importance) and runoff (84%), whereas nutrient retention responds more strongly to buffer structure and density management. Third, WEPP simulations across rainfall intensities (50–180 mm h−1) and slopes (10–30%) identify an optimal multilayer buffer density of 3800–5700 plants ha−1, which delivers robust multifunctional benefits with 50–67% lower planting requirements than conventional high-density monocultures. These findings demonstrate that multilayer vegetation buffers enhance soil retention and reduce nitrogen and phosphorus losses from hillslopes, sustaining the soil resource base and protecting water quality in dryland agricultural landscapes. The integrated modelling framework provides transferable, evidence-based density recommendations for climate-resilient soil conservation in similar dryland regions.