Wave Climate Trends and Teleconnections in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea are key regions of the western Atlantic, where sea-state conditions are critical for coastal safety and offshore operations. This study analyzes wave climate trends (1981–2022) using WAVEWATCH III simulations validated against buoy observations. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator were employed to quantify trends in significant wave height (Hs), energy period (Te), and wave power (P), while correlation analysis was performed to explore teleconnections with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The results reveal basin-wide increases in mean Hs and P, characterized by pronounced spatial and seasonal heterogeneity. The most robust positive trends occur during winter and spring; in summer and fall, the weaker or negative tendencies, particularly in Te, suggest an intensification of seasonal contrasts rather than uniform change. Teleconnection analysis demonstrates that, among the climate indices considered in this study, ENSO is the primary driver of interannual wave variability in the Caribbean, particularly modulating wave power through remotely generated swell. While the NAO exerts regionally dependent control associated with storm-track modulation, the AMO plays a secondary role, affecting swell-dominated sectors. In contrast, the Gulf of Mexico shows limited sensitivity to large-scale climate modes, with wave variability largely governed by local wind–sea processes. These findings highlight the contrasting wave dynamics between these two basins, providing critical insights for coastal hazard assessments, maritime traffic along major shipping routes, oil spill management, and regional wave energy planning.