Assessing the Development Potential of Drip Irrigation in Oasis Regions Under Water and Land Constraints: Evidence From the Kashgar Irrigation District

ABSTRACT Agricultural development in oasis regions is constrained by the performance of water‐saving technologies and the limitations of land and water resources. However, the effects of land and water constraints on agricultural development potential have rarely been quantified. This study proposes an assessment framework that integrates water‐saving potential under fixed cropland area and cropland expansion potential under limited water availability. Using the Kashgar Irrigation District in Xinjiang as a case study, we quantify the sustainable development space of the agricultural system under coupled land–water constraints through integrated model simulations. The results show that optimizing irrigation, strengthening groundwater regulation and improving efficiency can reduce irrigation water use by 7%–42% and total water consumption by 7%–22%. At the district scale, the drip irrigation scenario yields annual water savings of 4.47 × 10 8 m 3 , equivalent to 30% of the current irrigation demand, representing the primary adjustable margin under fixed land conditions. Without increasing total water withdrawals, these savings could support the expansion of up to 1.09 × 10 5 ha of cropland (approximately 31% of the existing irrigated area). These findings provide transferable insights into irrigation regime optimization and resource reallocation strategies for other oasis regions facing coupled water and land constraints.