Spatiotemporal Variation in Forest Cover and Its Driving Factors Revealed by eXtreme Gradient Boosting–SHapley Additive exPlanations Model: A Case Study of a Typical Karst Mountain Area in China

Under the context of global change, forest cover, as a critical component of terrestrial ecosystems, exerts a profound influence on regional ecological security and sustainable development through its spatiotemporal evolution. Current research on forest cover change primarily focuses on pattern description and single-factor driver analysis, with insufficient in-depth exploration of the interactions among multiple factors and their associated nonlinear mechanisms. To address this gap, this study focuses on the Wumeng Mountain area, a typical ecologically fragile karst region in Southwest China. By comprehensively employing methods such as Theil–Sen Median trend analysis, land use transfer matrix, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study systematically reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of forest cover from 1985 to 2024. On this basis, an integrated eXtreme Gradient Boosting–SHapley Additive exPlanations (XGBoost-SHAP) model is introduced to construct an indicator system comprising 16 driving variables, including elevation, slope, aspect, temperature, precipitation, soil type, soil pH, soil thickness, soil organic matter, soil moisture content, GDP, population, distance from water, distance from railway, distance from grade highway, and distance from government. This model quantifies the influence intensity of each driving factor on forest change. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 1985 to 2024, the forest cover rate in the Wumeng Mountain area significantly increased from 54.7% to 60.2%, exhibiting a “high-low-high” heterogeneous spatial distribution pattern along the northeast-southwest axis; (2) Forest increase primarily originated from the conversion of cropland and grassland, with contribution rates reaching 93.58% and 5.9%, respectively, indicating an overall trend of “increase in low-value areas and decrease in high-value areas”; (3) Forest cover change is driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors, with dominant driving factors exhibiting phased replacement over time. Overall, this is manifested as long-term stable constraints exerted by natural background factors, alongside strong disturbances from anthropogenic factors such as social-economic, and transportation-related activities. Natural factors remain the primary driving force behind changes in forest cover. The core findings of this study elucidate the complex driving factors of forest change in karst mountainous areas, thereby providing scientific support for the precise management of regional forest resources, the planning of ecological restoration projects, and the implementation of sustainable development strategies.