Economic Contribution of Oregon’s Mass Timber Market: A Scenario-Based Input–Output Analysis

We estimate Oregon’s mass timber-related market value and economic contribution using two complementary valuation strategies and two IMPLAN implementations. Although mass timber includes CLT, glulam, nail-laminated timber, dowel-laminated timber, mass plywood panels, and structural composite lumber products, the empirical market-value estimates are centered primarily on CLT- and MPP-related evidence because these products have the most consistently available Oregon-specific data. Market value is inferred from production-based approaches, including facility capacity, Oregon’s share of U.S. output, and tracer-product scaling, and from demand-based approaches, including harvest routing, construction floor area, and U.S. demand allocation. These direct values are then entered into industry contribution analysis (ICA) for Oregon’s Engineered Wood Member and Truss Manufacturing sector and into analysis-by-parts (ABP) using a custom mass timber spending pattern. During 2018–2023, production-based estimates were larger and more variable than demand-based estimates, bracketing a plausible scenario range rather than providing a single point estimate. In 2022 price scenarios, all price-exposed cases scale proportionally with assumed panel prices. When identical direct values are used, ABP produces larger total employment and output effects than ICA because it routes more activity through upstream supplier industries. Output-per-worker sensitivity affects only direct employment in ABP. Forward scenarios for 2030 and 2035 indicate substantially larger total effects under ABP than ICA, but these estimates are conditional scenarios rather than forecasts. The framework provides a transparent basis for policy, investment, supplier-development, and workforce-planning discussions in an emerging industry with incomplete product-level data.