Розробка гібридної нечіткої системи підтримки прийняття рішень для оцінювання ефективності артилерійського вогню в умовах дії невизначених збурень

The object of research is the processes of determining the effectiveness of artillery fire under conditions of uncertain disturbances, which include wear of the gun barrel, deterioration of the quality of charges and shells of a certain batch. This work addresses the problem of ensuring the adequacy of assessing the effectiveness of artillery fire in cases where the parameters of the gun barrel, the quality of powder charges or shells deviate from the nominal values and are determined inaccurately. The research used fuzzy logic methods to formalize decision-making processes under conditions of uncertainty, as well as methods of mathematical modeling and statistical analysis to simulate firing sequences and determine effectiveness estimates. A hybrid fuzzy-logical decision support system (DSS) has been developed and tested, which allows for a comprehensive and highly accurate assessment of the effectiveness of artillery fire. When forming estimates, the DSS takes into account three key parameters that characterize the most significant sources of uncertainty: barrel wear, deterioration of the quality of charges, deterioration of the quality of shells. The results of computational experiments for various realistic artillery fire scenarios were obtained. In turn, artillery installations with initial barrel wear values of 0.1 and 0.25 were studied when using charges and shells of different quality. During the experiments, it was established that the proposed system provides an adequate, practically useful assessment of the fire efficiency of artillery installations under realistic conditions of uncertainty. In particular, the calculated efficiency values during the entire firing process changed by no more than 12% in the first three experiments and no more than 21% in the next three. The developed DSS can be used in modern artillery complexes to increase the efficiency of making control decisions, reduce the proportion of misses, save scarce ammunition and reduce the risk of damage to equipment and personnel.