Physics-Based Energy Modeling and Electrification Scenarios for Bus Transit Systems: Evidence from Real-World Data

The decarbonization of urban public transport requires robust tools to evaluate the operational feasibility and energy implications of bus electrification. This study presents a physics-based modeling framework for estimating the energy consumption of urban bus operations using real-world telemetry data. GPS measurements collected onboard operating buses are used to reconstruct vehicle speed profiles and driving dynamics. The methodology is applied to a representative urban bus route operating in the city centre of Milan, characterized by dense traffic, closely spaced stops, and a high density of signalized intersections. Two operational improvement scenarios are investigated: traffic signal coordination through a “green wave” strategy and the integration of opportunity flash charging (OC) at selected stops. The results show that reducing traffic-related stops improves commercial speed and decreases energy demand, while OC can support battery operation within the constraints of urban service conditions. The proposed framework provides a transferable decision-support methodology for transit agencies planning the electrification of urban bus services and the deployment of supporting infrastructure.