Seroprevalence of the General Lebanese Population to COVID-19 Between 2023 and 2024

BackgroundUnderstanding population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for public health planning, especially Lebanon where unique healthcarechallenges exist. This study aimed to assess the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and identify predictors of serostatus in asample of the Lebanese population in 2023. MethodsWe conducted an observational study of 350 adult patients presenting to two emergency departments in Lebanon. Participantswere tested using a ZEKMED COVID-19 IgG/IgM rapid test, a qualitative rapid SARS-CoV-2 anti-E antibody kit. A comprehensivestatistical analysis including logistic regression, Bayesian modeling, and a Random Forest classifier was performed to identify predictorsof IgG seropositivity. ResultsOur results showed high IgG seroprevalence of 95.1% (n=333), suggesting prevalent natural infection. While vaccination status and self-reported prior infection were not significant predictors of serostatus in standard analyses, both Bayesian and Random Forest models identified increased age as a potential predictor associated with a negative IgG antibody response (94% HDI: [-1.531, -0.000]; importance score: 0.61). ConclusionOur findings indicate high exposure to natural SARS-CoV-2 infection in this Lebanese cohort. However, the association of advanced age with a negative antibody response suggests that older populations may remain more vulnerable. This highlights the need for continued targeted public health surveillance and strategies despite high overall seroprevalence from past infections.