Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptive Responses: Evidence from Doti District of Nepal

The agriculture sector in Nepal is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its traditional practices, limited technological intervention, and low adaptive capacity. Owing to the country’s complex topography, the impacts of climate change are spatially heterogeneous, making local-level climate change assessments highly relevant. This study focuses on the impact of climate change on three major crops (rice, wheat, and maize), in the Doti district of Nepal, based on meteorological records, crop yield data, questionnaire surveys, and focus group discussions. Climate records from 1982 to 2022 show a trend in annual rainfall at a rate of −3.28 mm per year, with a particularly pronounced decline during the monsoon season. Both maximum and minimum temperatures exhibit statistically significant increasing trends of 0.01 °C and 0.03 °C per year, respectively. The most significant warming for maximum temperature occurs during the monsoon season, while minimum temperature shows the highest increase during the pre-monsoon season. During the same period, annual yields of paddy, maize, and wheat show statistically significant increasing trends. These trends in climate variables and crop yields align with the perceptions of local communities. Linear correlation analysis indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures have a positive influence on crop yields, whereas precipitation and diurnal temperature range have negative effects. Among these, minimum temperature has the greatest impact on crop yields, followed by maximum temperature and rainfall. Multiple linear regression analysis reveals that climate variables better explain long-term trends in crop yields rather than year-to-year variability. The impact of climate is most pronounced in wheat where climate variables account for approximately 55% of the yield variability, followed by paddy (R2~49%) and maize (R2~20%). Despite the overall increase in crop yields, interannual variability has grown, consistent with increased variability in climate parameters. To cope with this uncertainty, local communities have adopted various adaptation strategies, including the use of improved seed varieties, green manure, and changes in crop types. Other key practices include the use of inorganic fertilizers, selection of short-duration crops, crop rotation, minimum tillage farming, and river conservation.