Композитна оцінка економічної результативності циркулярної трансформації промислових підприємств у площині «економіка – екологія – соціум»

The object of research is the economic effectiveness of the processes of circular transformation of industrial enterprises. The problem lies in the absence of an integrated enterprise-level approach that would make it possible to identify of inter-block imbalances, ensure analytical consistency of indicators, and strengthen the basis for managerial decision-making. The paper provides a comprehensive assessment of circular transformation performance in industrial enterprises in the economy – environment – society dimension. A composite CEI-360 index is proposed, combining a harmonized system of indicators, fixed min-max normalization, block weighting, and aggregation with limited inter-block compensability. In addition, a structural-balance coefficient is introduced to distinguish the overall level of effectiveness from the consistency of change across the economic, environmental, and social dimensions. The empirical basis is panel data for five Ukrainian industrial enterprises from different industries for 2015–2025 using scenario modeling for 2026–2030. The results showed growth in 2015–2021, a systemic decline in 2022 (–15.7%) and a further differentiated recovery in 2023–2025 exceeding the 2021 level. The scenario analysis confirmed the stable advantage of the circular-cluster development trajectory over the inertial one (up to +0.108 CEI-360 points in 2030). The originality of the research lies in the development of an integrated tool for assessing circular transformation performance with explicit consideration of structural consistency across dimensions. The practical significance of the findings lies in using the framework for strategic diagnostics, benchmarking, monitoring of dynamics, and substantiating managerial decisions on the priorities of circular enterprise development.