Удосконалення методики оцінювання динаміки деградації та прямих економічних втрат агросектору в умовах сучасних викликів, спричинених воєнними діями

The object of research is the process of assessing the dynamics of degradation and direct economic losses of the agricultural sector. The hypothesis of research is based on the assumption that the regression model is able to provide a reliable short-term assessment (with a lag of 1 year) of the actual state of land use. Improved methodology for assessing the dynamics of degradation and direct economic losses in the agricultural sector, which, unlike the known ones, involves the following stages: – analysis of the dynamics of the Red and NIR channels within the study area to identify patterns of degradation of agrophytocenoses; – determination of a statistical criterion of landscape structural order (OSI) to differentiate target crops from ruderal vegetation; – conducting a linear regression analysis to determine the areas of active production based on the spectral characteristics of satellite data. Experimental studies have been conducted to assess the volume of direct economic losses in the agricultural sector for the period 2022–2025. Analysis of the dynamics of spectral channels for 2016–2025 showed that starting from 2022, a “scissors” effect has been observed – a steady increase in the average in the Red channel and a decrease in NDVI, which is a sign of land withdrawal from cultivation. In the pre-war period, OSI values were in the range of 0.3–0.7, and starting from 2022 they became negative (about –1.5), which corresponds to the loss of structural integrity of the agricultural landscape. The calculated direct economic losses in the agricultural sector of the Kyiv region (Ukraine) for 2022–2025 are 491.7–548.11 million USD, depending on the calculation method. The gap between official statistics and the calculation method (37.26 million USD) corresponds to the crop that was sown but not harvested due to military threats.