A spatial framework to identify bright spots and structural gaps for the development of sociobiodiversity bioeconomy: evidence from the Brazilian Cerrado

This working paper presents a spatially explicit framework to assess the potential for sociobiodiversity-based bioeconomy development in the Brazilian Cerrado. The study integrates three key dimensions: (i) traditional use of non-timber forest products (NTFPs), (ii) availability of support infrastructure, and (iii) presence and functional diversity of intermediary actors. Using spatial analysis across 1,434 municipalities, the framework identifies critical territorial patterns and reveals structural mismatches between ecological potential, infrastructure availability and institutional capacity. The results show that while biodiversity and NTFP production potential are concentrated in the northern Cerrado, infrastructure and support networks are predominantly located in the southern regions. Based on this integrated analysis, the study classifies municipalities into three territorial typologies: bright spots, where favorable conditions converge; potential hubs, where high ecological potential is constrained by limited infrastructure and institutional support; and underdeveloped areas, which lack the structural conditions required for bioeconomy development. The findings demonstrate that biodiversity alone is insufficient to drive development. Instead, the viability of sociobiodiversity-based bioeconomy depends on the convergence of ecological, infrastructural and institutional factors. This study contributes to the advancement of territorial intelligence approaches by providing a scalable and transferable analytical framework that supports decision-making processes. The framework can be applied to guide territorial planning, inform public policies, prioritize investments and support ESG strategies aimed at sustainable and inclusive development. This document corresponds to a working paper (Version 1.0) and may be further developed into a peer-reviewed publication.