Measurement, dynamic evolution, and driving factors of agricultural supply chain resilience in China and RCEP member countries: perspective of the entire agricultural industry chain and tariff reduction

Against the backdrop of global supply chain restructuring and the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), this study investigates agricultural supply chain resilience between China and 14 RCEP member states, focusing on the entire industrial chain and tariff reduction. The technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS)-entropy method, kernel density estimation, and obstacle degree model are used to develop a resilience evaluation system that accounts for demand, supply, connectivity, and guarantee dimensions. Results showed that the scale of the China-RCEP agricultural trade increased over time, with the midstream segment becoming the core of the trade structure. Agricultural supply chain resilience exhibited a wave-like growth trend, with downstream resilience outperforming upstream and midstream resilience, and the midstream being the weak link. Regionally, resilience exhibited an unbalanced pattern, with Australia and New Zealand in the lead, followed by Japan, South Korea, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Singapore and China ranked highest, and Myanmar ranked lowest. Demand-side factors had the largest effect on resilience, followed by guarantee-side, supply-side, and connectivity-side factors, with significant heterogeneity across industrial chain segments. RCEP tariff concessions increased resilience through supply source diversification, cost buffering, and regional industrial chain restructuring. The Simulation Model of Applied Regional Trade Analysis (SMART) indicates that the RCEP tariff policy significantly improved the agricultural supply chain trade between China and other member countries. This study provides empirical insights to optimize regional cooperation in the agricultural supply chain and improve resilience.