Satellite data show trees delay budburst across landscapes to escape herbivores
) across 60 temperate oak forest sites under experimental manipulation of insect herbivore loads in Central Europe, we show that prior-year leaf herbivory delayed budburst by 3 days, cancelling the phenological advance observed during a decade of warming. This delay reduced subsequent herbivory by 55%, exceeding the effects of parasitoids or pathogens, and persisted even during pest outbreaks. Across landscapes, the delay was strongest where it probably provided the highest benefit, that is, where a given amount of delay most effectively reduced following herbivory, which suggests an adaptive tree defence. Ultimately, trees may be trapped between responding to two opposing consequences of global change: warming selects for earlier budburst, whereas herbivory selects for delay. Our results underscore the need to consider not only climate, but also plant-herbivore interactions and adaptive evolution to predict tree responses to a changing world.
Authors
- Thomas Kneib (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3390-0972)
- Johannes A. Jehle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8143-7743)
- Soyeon Bae (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1961-1226)
- Freerk Molleman (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6551-266X)
- Andrew M. Liebhold (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7427-6534)
- Jens Lichter
- Maike Huszarik (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4470-2023)
- Soumen Mallick (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0168-7919)
- Andreas Prinzing
- Torben Hilmers
- Benjamin M L Leroy
- Wolfgang W Weisser
- Jörg Müller
Institutions
- Julius Kühn-Institut (DE)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- University of Würzburg (DE)
- Bavarian Forest National Park (DE)
- Ecosystèmes, Biodiversité, Evolution (FR)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (DE)
- Colmar Inra Research Centre (FR)
- Poznań University of Technology (PL)
- Technical University of Munich (DE)
- University of Göttingen (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Ecology & Evolution
- Published
- 2026-05-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03071-9
- Primary Topic
- Forest Insect Ecology and Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
- Volkswagen Foundation
- Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Forsten
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme