Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Synergy of Agricultural Pollution Control and Carbon Reduction in Ecologically Fragile Areas: An Efficiency Perspective

This paper is based on data from 121 cities in China’s ecologically fragile regions from 2008 to 2022; it constructs an indicator system for the efficiency of pollution control and carbon reduction in agricultural practices. This system includes expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs, arable land area, agricultural laborers, total agricultural output value, agricultural carbon emissions, and agricultural non-point source pollution. It uses a super-efficiency SBM model that incorporates non-desirable outputs to measure the synergistic efficiency and analyzes its dynamic evolution using the Malmquist–Luenberger index to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of the synergistic efficiency. A Tobit model identifies the influence of factors, such as the level of rural economic development, crop planting structure, the strength of fiscal support for agriculture, rural education level, urbanization rate, and mechanization level on the synergistic efficiency. The results show that, from a temporal perspective, the average synergistic efficiency was only 0.58, significantly below the effective value of 1, indicating substantial room for overall improvement. Only 10 cities met the benchmark, with distinctly different reasons for compliance, while the remaining 111 cities remained inefficient. Regarding influencing factors, crop planting structure, the strength of fiscal support for agriculture, and urbanization rate significantly and positively drive efficiency; the level of rural economic development and mechanization level significantly inhibit efficiency, and rural education level shows no significant impact. These findings provide targeted policy recommendations for the synergy effect in ecologically fragile areas, as well as for low-carbon agricultural development.